EU-CIRCLE Case Study: Multihazard Risk Assessment in Vasilikos Area, Cyprus
The area considered in the case study is the greater Vasilikos Area located on the south coast of Cyprus, approximately 25 km east of the town of Limassol, 30 km southwest of the town of Larnaca and 40 km south of the island’s capital city, Nicosia. The Vasilikos area is designated as a heavy-duty industrial area and houses the island’s largest power station (868 MW), two oil terminals, a port and the largest cement factory in Cyprus. The Government of the Republic of Cyprus plans to further develop the Vasilikos area into the island’s primary energy hub, through the Vasilikos Energy Centre (VEC) project managed by the Department of Energy.
The case study tested the EU-CIRCLE risk assessment methodology on CI energy facilities, including oil transportation and storage and electricity production. The objectives of the case study were to:
- Understand each CI organisation’s assets and operations;
- Define the assets of their respective facilities;
- Define the climatic thresholds for each asset;
- Collect the current procedures dealing with prevention, planning and management of emergencies;
- Collect data concerning previous climate events which impacted their respective networks;
- Collect information on their business continuity plans;
- Identify the impacts to their assets and operations in the event of exceedance of climatic thresholds under climate change.
The EU-CIRCLE climate change risk assessment methodology (from D3.5 Holistic CI Climate Hazard Risk Assessment Framework) was implemented in the following steps:
Conduction of climate analysis that resulted in understanding the changing nature of hazards and the estimation of return periods in Cyprus.
Conduction of exposure analysis, based upon the provision of design and operational thresholds from the CI operators
Estimation of likelihood of hazards,
Estimation of consequences through impact indicator tables,
Estimation of risk level.
A low-probability high- impact event in the form of a Medicane was also selected for inclusion in the case study.
Table 1: Relevant impacts and their classes used in the risk analysis
Figure 1: CIRP Visualization of Medicane over Cyprus
Figure 2: Selection of Fuel Storage Tanks Impact curves and Max Temp 3days climate variable in CIRP
Figure 3: Fuel Storage Tanks climate impact curves in CIRP
CI operators found that conducting risk analysis of high-impact low probability events useful, particularly for insurance purposes. There does need to be more coordination between the operators of the area and the emergency responders so that the CI operators are better prepared in the event of high-impact low probability events.
CI operators considered that it is important to know what climate hazards are likely to affect CI operations, and for CI operators to have scientific input to understand the hazards and risks. The EU-CIRCLE risk analysis is useful for discussing impacts and what type of response is necessary and how long it could take.
It was strongly recommended that a joint climate change risk assessment of the entire area should be conducted, particularly in light of the future development of the VEC.